基于加权网络模型的指挥节点重要度评估方法

指挥节点重要度评估是研究指挥网络可靠性和抗毁性的重要内容。通过定义加权网络节点重要度贡献矩阵,提出了一种利用节点重要度评价矩阵确定加权网络关键节点的相对重要度的方法,该方法能充分考虑节点的位置信息、邻接节点的重要度贡献关系;结合作战任务对社区的依赖度,设计了节点全局重要度评估算法,并利用该算法对典型网络节点重要度进行了分析,结果表明算法有效、可行。     

基于贪婪算法的影响网络行动方案优选

针对影响网络中行动方案的优选问题,分析了现有方法存在的不足,提出了一种基于贪婪算法的行动方案优选方法。该方法采用自顶向下的搜索方式,通过分析行动组合对期望效果的整体影响来选择较优的行动方案。并进行实例验证。结果表明,与灵敏度分析法和穷举搜索法相比,该方法能够在较短时间内找到较优的可行行动方案集合,可有效支持行动方案的优选。     

单脉冲测角在BM突防干扰机上的应用

高分辨雷达(HRR)使用目标HRRP检测目标,由此要求弹道导弹(BM)突防干扰机生成的多假目标信号中包含BM弹头HRRP信息,HRRP长度是HRRP的一个重要特征,需要通过测量雷达观测角计算得到,BM突防干扰机自旋,自身三维姿态难以提取,二维单脉冲测角系统难以应用,一维单脉冲测角系统根据自旋特点,可间断地测得雷达观测角,干扰机和BM弹头运动以及干扰机自旋对测角精度影响较小,间断得到的雷达观测角可以用来计算BM弹头HRRP长度,指出了干扰机章动是影响测角精度的主要因素,最后说明了探讨的方法对目前BM突防干扰机设计具有一定实际工程意义。     

概率影响图的防空导弹作战能力影响分析

针对防空导弹系统各作战能力间影响关系难以量化评估的问题,提出利用概率影响图进行分析的方法。在分析防空导弹作战流程、确定各作战活动影响关系的前提下,该方法首先由作战活动影响关系估计各作战能力结点的边缘概率和条件概率;其次利用目标定向法建立防空导弹作战能力概率影响图;最后对概率影响图进行一致性变换,定量评估各作战能力间的影响关系,导找重要能力指标,并动态分析影响关系的概率变化。以战术级爱国者防空导弹系统PAC-3为例借助该方法进行分析。结果证明,利用概率影响图分析防空导弹作战能力影响关系是可行和有效的。     

海洋环境影响声自导鱼雷的弹道分析与动态仿真

针对海洋环境引起的声自导鱼雷的声探测偏差问题,基于Argo资料,运用动态和对比分析,研究了鱼雷搜索和自导两个阶段中海洋环境对其声探测的影响机制、鱼雷声线轨迹偏差的纠正对策并进行仿真实现。结果表明:在搜索段,海况对鱼雷发现目标的时机具有显著的影响;在自导段,垂直温盐梯度的存在使鱼雷弹道产生偏差、遭遇时间变短、总航程缩短、最大需用过载变大,采取相应的纠正对策可以有效地降低鱼雷的脱靶量、提高自导性能。     

一种基于改进Bounding Box的移动信标辅助节点定位算法

针对无线传感器网络的节点自定位问题,提出一种利用单个移动信标的定位算法。该方法在传统Bounding Box定位方法的基础上,结合信标的实际通信区域,提出“O-区域”和“S-区域”的概念,通过对新接收到的信标位置分类讨论,进一步缩小未知节点的可能区域。通过仿真比较,验证了该方法的性能优于质心定位法和Bounding Box定位法,同时定位精度与移动信标的通信半径大小有关。     

韩国反导政策:调整、原因及影响

韩国自20世纪90年代起开始考虑反导系统的构建以来,其反导政策经历了"明确反对加入美国反导体系,自主构建韩国型导弹防御系统"到"强化韩美、韩美日反导合作,谋求实质上融入美国反导体系"的显著调整与变化。韩国反导政策的演变与朝鲜核、导威胁的与日俱增、韩国自身反导能力的不足及美国的极力推动等因素密不可分。当前,韩国开始部署"萨德"末段高空区域反导系统,韩美反导合作日益深入,并向韩美日三边合作拓展,且取得了实质性的进展。韩国强化与美、日的反导联合,在军事、外交、安全方面引发了广泛影响。     

Influence without power? Reframing British concepts of military intervention after 10 years of counterinsurgency

British attitudes towards military intervention following the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan have undergone what appears to be considerable change. Parliament has voted against the use of Britain's armed forces in Syria and the public are unenthused by overseas engagement. Conscious of the costs and the challenges posed by the use of British military power the government has been busy revamping the way it approaches crises overseas. The result is a set of policies that apparently heralds a new direction in foreign policy. This new direction is encapsulated in the Building Stability Overseas Strategy (BSOS) and the more recent International Defence Engagement Strategy (IDES). Both BSOS and IDES set out the basis for avoiding major deployments to overseas conflict and instead refocuses effort on defence diplomacy, working with and through overseas governments and partners, early warning, pre-conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction. Developing a number of themes that reach from across the Cold War to more contemporary discussions of British strategy, the goal of this special edition is to take into account a number of perspectives that place BSOS and IDES in their historical and strategic context. These papers suggest that using defence diplomacy is and will remain an extremely imprecise lever that needs to be carefully managed if it is to remain a democratically accountable tool of foreign policy.     

THE ‘PRICE’ OF TERRORISM

Security measures are said to increase the price of terrorism. This price has not been hitherto defined in an economically meaningful way. This paper provides a precise definition by treating the terrorists’ resource endowment as a parcel of contingent claims to political influence with a price equal to the summed value of those contingent claims in potential states of the world. Equipped with this definition, an equilibrium model of the price of terrorism is deployed. Important insights are gained into the effect of terrorists’ risk aversion at the level of the price of terrorism in different states of the world and the theoretical conclusion is reached that higher security is associated with a lower price of terrorism rather than a higher price. The implications for policy are discussed.     

一个新的求解单节点并联供水系统的数学模型

对单节点并联供水系统直接用伯努利方程、管道阻力特性和节点连续性方程建立了求解工况参数的一个新的数学模型,讨论了其解,列举了实际应用。